Why Cell-Tracking and Nowcasting?
The forecasting of weather events imposes enormous demands on meteorology. Using elaborate calculation models, weather activities around the globe are recorded and anticipated. Large-scale weather patterns for specific regions may be forecasted for longer periods of time as well. Nonetheless, the exact position of a local storm cannot be forecasted even with such sophisticated models.
Lightning strokes occur in the meteorologically active area of a storm. Such areas are often also characterized by hail, heavy rain and strong gusts. As such, these zones are particularly dangerous and important in terms of damage potential, and cannot be precisely recorded using other measurement methods such as radar and satellite. In order to mark as well as project these zones and their pertinent development as Nowcasting, nowcast has developed Cell Tracking.
Unlike model-based forecasts, Cell Tracking and Nowcasting are calculated with the aid of real-time data. In this manner, the most current weather data gathered at moment of occurrence are included in the calculation and allow for extremely precise forecasts in chronological and geographical terms.
With Cell Tracking, the path taken by a storm cell can be systematically tracked and continuously analysed. The resulting Nowcasting then generates precise warnings in real time for alarm regions defined in advance. In specific terms, this means that, one to two hours before a storm cell arrives at a defined alarm region, the exact time of arrival, duration and passing of the thunderstorm can be calculated. The recipient of the weather warning thus has the opportunity to take appropriate measures in good time in order to mitigate and minimise storm-related hazards and risks.
In addition to the chronological and geographical values, the algorithm ascertains the magnitude of the thunderstorm and, as the case may be, generates severe-weather warnings with respect to hail, heavy rainfall and strong gusts for specific areas within a storm cell. Hence, depending on the sensitivity of the alarm region, a warning may also be generated which is ideally adapted to the needs of the customer.